PROGRAM for the Workshop on
Predictability, Observations, and Uncertainties in Geosciences

13-15 March 2006, Tallahassee, Florida
SCS Seminar room, 4th floor, Dirac Science Library, Florida State University 

	Monday, March 13

	8:30-9:00 - Refreshments/Breakfast

	9:00-9:10 - Dr. Joseph Travis, Dean of the College of Arts and Sciences, FSU Welcome

	9:10-9:20 - Max Gunzburger, Director, School of Computational Sciences, FSU Welcome

	9:20-9:25 - Michael Navon, SCS and Department of Mathematics/FSU, USA Welcome

	Session 1. Chair: Milija Zupanski

	9:25-10:10 - Ed Lorenz, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, USA
		Demonstrations of Simple Chaos(PDF file)
	10:10-10:30 - Coffee Break/Refreshments
	10:30-11:10 - Francois LeDimet, Joseph Fourier University, France
		Uncertainties in deterministic data assimilation(PDF file)
	11:10-11:50 - Eugenia Kalnay, University of Maryland, USA
		4D-Var or LETKF: recent results(PDF file)
		
	    -Dan Gabriel Cacuci, CEA and University of Karlsruhe
		Lecture Notes on the Use of Adjoint Operators for Global Optimization and Data Assimilation
		(PDF file)
		
		
	11:50-12:20 - Discussion
	12:20-13:50 - Lunch

	Session 2. Chair: James Annan

	13:50-14:30 - T.N. Krishnamurti, Florida State University, USA
		Recent results on ensemble forecasting from Multimodels for Hurricanes, Global NWP and Seasonal Climate
		(PDF file)
	14:30-15:10 - Rolf Reichle, NASA, USA
		Soil moisture and soil temperature assimilation with the Ensemble Kalman filter
		(PDF file)
	15:10-15:30 - Break/Refreshments

	Session 3. Chair: Zoltan Toth

	15:30-15:50 - Stephane Vannitsem, Royal Meteorological Institute, Belgium
		Model error dynamics due to parameterization uncertainties
		(PDF file)
	15:50-16:10 - 
	16:10-16:30 - Milija Zupanski and Dusanka Zupanski, CIRA/CSU, USA
		The Maximum Likelihood Ensemble Filter(PDF file)
	6:30-17:00 - Discussion
	17:00 - Adjourn
	18:30-20:30 - Banquet (All participants)

	Tuesday, March 14

	8:30-9:00 - Refreshments/Breakfast

	Session 4. Chair: Michael Navon

	9:00-9:40 - Zoltan Toth, NOAA/NCEP/EMC, USA
		Forecast initialization of imperfect numerical models(PDF file)
	9:40-10:20 - Jeffrey Anderson, NCAR, USA
		A Hierarchical Bayesian Approach for Adaptive Error Correction in Ensemble Filters
		(PDF file)
	10:20-10:40 - Coffee Break/Refreshments
	10:40-11:20 - James Annan, JAMSTEC, Japan
		Efficient parameter estimation and ensemble generation in climate prediction
		(PDF file)
	11:20-12:00 - Discussion
	12:00-13:30 - Lunch

	Session 5. Chair: Jeffrey Anderson

	13:30-14:10 - Alessandro Petruzzi, Univ. of Pisa, Italy
		The Internal Assessment of Uncertainty, CIAU: Features and Applications
		(PDF file)
	14:10-14:50 - Karspeck Alicia, NCAR, USA
		The implementation of an Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter in an intermediate ENSO model
		(PDF file)
	14:50-15:10 - Break/Refreshments

	Session 6. Chair: T.N. Krishnamurti

	15:10-15:30 - Bill Hu, Department of Geological Sciences/FSU, USA
		Using Sequential Self-calibration Method to estimate a correlation length of a logconductivity field conditioned upon a tracer test and limited measured data
		(PDF file)
	15:30-15:50 - Steven Fletcher, Milija Zupanski and Manajit Sengupta, CIRA/CSU, USA
		Implications and impact from transforming between lognormal variables to Normal variables
		(PDF file)
	15:50-16:10 - Jun Du, Jeff McQueen, Geoff Dimego, Binbin Zhou and Zoltan Toth, 
		NCEP/NOAA and SAIC, USA
		The NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting (SREF) System
		(PDF file)
		
	6:10-16:30 - Michael Navon, SCS and Dept. Mathematics/FSU, USA
		Particle Filters
	16:30-16:50 - Jiang Xiaowei, Department of Geological Sciences/FSU, USA
		Exactness and Uncertainty of Geostatistics-based Techniques for Remote Sensing Image Restoration
		(PDF file)
	16:50-17:20 - Discussion
	17:20 - Adjourn

	Wednesday, March 15

	8:30-9:00 - Refreshments/Breakfast

	Session 7. Chair: Francois LeDimet

	9:00-9:20 - Martin William, CAPS/Univ. Oklahoma, USA
		Sensitivity Analysis of Mesoscale Forecasts from Large Ensembles of Randomly and Non-Randomly Perturbed Model Runs
		(PDF file)
	9:20-9:40 - Bahri Uzunoglu, School of Computational Science/FSU, USA
		Adaptive ensemble size reduction and inflation and adaptive observations
		(PDF file)
	9:40-10:00 - Jidong Gao and Ming Xue, CAPS/Univ. Oklahoma:
		An Efficient Ensemble Data Assimilation approach of Doppler Radar Data With a
		Compressible Nonhydrostatic Model
		(PDF file)
	10:00-10:20 - Coffee Break/Refreshments

	Session 8. Chair: Stephane Vanitsem

	10:20-10:40 - Jon Ahlquist and Adam Allgood, Dept of Meteorology/FSU, USA
		Statistical Corrections for NCEP Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts
		(PDF file)
	10:40-11:00 - Jun Du, NCEP/NOAA and SAIC, USA
		Hybrid Ensembling: Bridging hi-res model and coarser-res ensemble system
		(PDF file)
	11:00-12:00 - Discussion and Closing
	12:00 - Adjourn, End of Workshop

	Posters:
	Arif Albayrak and Milija Zupanski, CIRA/CSU, USA
	Assimilation of Real Observations using Maximum Likelihood Ensemble Filter (MLEF) with
	NCEP's Global Forecast Model (GFS)

	Jichun Wu, Dept. Geology/FSU, USA:
	Numerical Method of Moments for Solute Transport in a Nonstationary Flow Field Conditioning on
	Hydraulic Conductivity and Head Measurement

	Santha Akella, SCS/FSU, USA:
	Poster Title